A stochastic approach for analysis of the influence of white spot disease, zootechnical parameters, water quality, and management factors on the variability of production of shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei cultivated under intensive commercial conditions

We investigated the variability of shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei production by incorporating stochastic elements into deterministic stock models and determined the contribution that white spot disease, zootechnical parameters, water quality, and alternative management strategies have on variability. The model was calibrated for intensive shrimp cultivation in the State of Nayarit, Mexico. Mean annual production increased as a consequence of improved management from 8000 kg ha⁻¹ to 22,000 kg ha⁻¹ when cultivation was not affected by the disease and from 3200 kg ha⁻¹ to 10,400 kg ha⁻¹ when the disease affected production. When simultaneously considering both cases, mean annual production increased from 6300 kg ha⁻¹ to 16,800 kg ha⁻¹. White spot disease was a major factor determining variability of production. Shrimp production was particularly sensitive to levels of dissolved oxygen when management was inadequate, while final weight and mortality rate of shrimp were more sensitive when management improved. Water temperature and salinity had intermediate importance, and mortality caused by the disease and the time when mortality occurred had intermediate or low relevance. Improving management increased shrimp production and diminished variability. The duration of cultivation and stocking density were the most important management variables controlling variability of production when cultivation was affected by the white spot disease. When the disease was not present, pond size and duration of cultivation were the main factors affecting production. Starting time of aeration had relatively lower importance in determining variability, while the stochastic values of dissolved oxygen, in contrast, became most important. These results call for studies on improving aeration management to reduce variability of dissolved oxygen in ponds.     

大宗农产品市场竞争力的影响因素研究——基于对重庆市“两翼”地区的调研

采用结构方程模型分析技术,对影响重庆市大宗农产品市场竞争力的各要素进行了系统分析。结果表明,生态环境对市场竞争力的直接影响不显著;政策扶持、农户因素、生产条件、农业科技、生产能力等因素对农产品市场竞争力有不同程度的影响,体现出了直接和间接的影响,其作用路径和方式也不尽相同。     

黑斑狗鱼形态性状对体重的影响效果分析

选取0^＋龄～4^＋龄黑斑狗鱼332尾，对其体长、体高、体宽、尾柄长、尾柄高、头长、头高、头宽、吻长、眼间距、口裂宽、口裂长和体重等13个性状进行测量。采用多元分析法分析体重和形态形状的关系。结果表明，黑斑狗鱼除0^＋龄头长与体重之间的相关系数未达到显著水平（P〉0．05）外，其它各形态性状与体重的相关系数均达到显著水平（P〈0．05）或极显著水平（P〈0．01）；经通径分析，不同年龄阶段各形态性状对体重的通径系数存在一定的差异，但体长和头高对体重的通径系数均达到显著水平，而且体长对体重的直接作用均最大，其余各性状均是通过体长间接的影响体重；决定系数分析结果表明，体长对体重的决定系数最大，其它性状主要通过体长影响体重；通径分析结果与决定系数分析结果的变化趋势一致；所选形态性状与体重的相关指数R2〉0．85，说明所选性状是影响体重的主要性状。应用逐步多元回归分析，经偏回归系数的显著性检验，建立以体重为因变量（Y），各形态性状为自变量的多元回归方程，0^＋龄～4^＋龄黑斑狗鱼体重（Y）与形态性状参数的多元叵归方程分别为：LgY=-1．411＋0．395LgX8＋0．576LgX1＋0．092LgX1n＋0．538LgX7＋0．35LgX6；LgY=-4．132＋0．866LgX1＋0．102LgX】2＋0．083LgX7；LgY=一4．186＋0．772LgX1＋0．195LgX7；LgY=-2．542＋0．372LgX1＋0．185LgX3＋0．256LgX8＋0．23LgX7，；LgY=-4．585＋0．816LgX1＋0．178LgX7。经回归预测估计值与实际值间的差异不显著（P〉0．05），该方程可用于黑斑狗鱼实际生产中，为黑斑狗鱼选种提供了理论依据和理想的测量指标。     

基于SVM的CFRW导电性建模预测研究

针对碳纤维增强木质复合材料（CFRW）导电性具有非线性的特点，采用基于支持向量回归机（SVM）的机器学习方法建立碳纤维增强木质复合材料导电性预测模型。结果表明，所建模型的预测精度高、泛化能力强.     

改性木屑处理含铬废水的研究

采用磷酸改性木屑后用于含铬废水吸附处理,探讨废水pH值、处理时间、木屑投加量、处理温度4个因素对铬去除率的影响;并拟合25℃改性木屑吸附处理含铬废水的动力学、等温线方程,估算热力学数据。结果表明:木屑对含铬废水有较强去除力,改性木屑去除力加强;改性木屑处理20ml浓度为50mg/L含铬废水的适宜条件为pH值=1～4,处理时间90min,木屑投加量1g,处理温度20～30℃;改性木屑吸附处理含铬废水的动力学特性符合颗粒内扩散方程和二级吸附速率方程;吸附等温线方程符合Langmuir吸附;25℃吸附过程ΔH=-20.489kJ/mol,ΔS=-78.426J/(mol.K),ΔG=2.89kJ/mol。     

基于最小二乘法的落叶松木粉粒径数学建模与分析

【目的】建立落叶松木粉粒径与长宽比的数学模型，通过分析数学模型和其二阶导数，揭示木粉长宽比随粒径减小的变化趋势及变化的根本原因，获得最大长宽比对应的粒径，为建立长宽比与力学性能之间的定量关系提供参考。【方法】利用光学显微镜拍摄获得木粉的显微图像，测算获得目标木粉成熟管胞的平均长度、平均宽度以及木粉粒径的大小。通过数字图像处理技术提取单木粉颗粒的矩形度、长宽比：将原始木粉显微图像由 RGB颜色空间转到Lab颜色空间，提取其b分量；对b分量图像用3×3模板进行中值滤波；用K-means算法将去噪后图像聚类为2类，得木粉的二值图像；对二值图像用5×5的结构元素进行先开启后闭合的数学形态学运算；用八连通区域法标记图像中的单木粉颗粒；对标记后图像用目标区域像素点个数统计法计算获得单木粉颗粒的几何面积，用主轴法获得单木粉颗粒的最小外接矩形的长、宽、面积；计算获得单木粉颗粒的长宽比、矩形度数据。采用最小二乘法对木粉粒径与长宽比进行数据拟合，通过分析评判多项式、高斯和傅里叶3种拟合函数后选用高斯方程表达得木粉粒径与木粉长宽比的数学模型，再根据其拟合曲线方程计算得其二阶导数，结合模型的二阶导数和测算得的木粉管胞数据对高斯模型进行分析与讨论。【结果】矩形度不随木粉粒径的减小而变化，均值在0.6～0.8之间。长宽比随粒径减小出现先增大后减小的趋势：木粉粒径在1100～576μm 时，长宽比数值从接近于1开始逐渐增大；木粉粒径为576μm时(与本文目标木粉成熟管胞的平均长度563.82μm接近)，长宽比达到最大数值4.6；木粉粒径在576～30μm时，长宽比逐渐减小；而粒径小于50μm 时(与目标木粉成熟管胞的平均宽度46.498μm接近)，长宽比数值再次趋近于1。【结论】长宽比的变化与管胞破裂密切相关：木粉粒径大于管胞长度时，木粉主要通过纵向断裂使粒径减小；粒径与管胞长度接近时，长宽比较大；粒径小于等于管胞宽度范围内，木粉主要是横向断裂，而长宽比基本不再发生变化且趋近于1。长宽比和冲击强度随粒径减小的变化趋势是一致的，长宽比是影响材料力学性能本质因素之一。     

重庆南温泉洗浴废水用作植物灌溉水的可行性研究

重庆市温泉资源丰富,温泉洗浴废水运用于绿地灌溉可以节约成本,缓解城市的水危机。温泉洗浴废水对植物生长有正负两方面的影响,与植物的种类,温泉洗浴废水的水质等因素有关。实验以重庆市常见的两种绿地植物——冷水花木春菊为研究对象,对温泉洗浴废水中影响植物生长的pH、固体悬浮物、高锰酸钾,总溶解性固体4个常见指标进行了浓度值对比实验。运用对相对电导率拟合Logistic方程求半致死浓度值的方法,确定绿地植物所能耐受的上限阀值。以此为基础对温泉废水进行相关处理,使温泉废水既可以达到灌溉绿地的水质标准,又能最大限度地降低废水处理成本,从而充分利用水资源。     

Impacts of climate variability on reference evapotranspiration over 58 years in the Haihe river basin of north China

Physically, evaporative demand is driven by net radiation (R_n), vapour pressure (e_a), wind speed (u₂), and air temperature (T_a), each of which changes over time. By analyzing temporal variations in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀), improved understanding of the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes can be obtained. In this study, variations in ET₀ over 58 years (1950-2007) at 34 stations in the Haihe river basin of China were analyzed. ET₀ was calculated by the FAO Penman-Monteith formula. Calculation of Kendall rank coefficient was done by analyzing the annual and seasonal trends in ET₀ derived from its dependent climate variables. Inverse distance weighting (IDW) was used to analyze the spatial variation in annual and seasonal ET₀, and in each climate variable. An attribution analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of each input variable to ET₀ variation. The results showed that ET₀ gradually decreased in the whole basin over the 58 years at a rate of −1.0 mm yr⁻², at the same time, R_n, u₂ and precipitation also decreased. Changes in ET₀ were attributed to the variations in net radiation (−0.9 mm yr⁻²), vapour pressure (−0.5 mm yr⁻²), wind speed (−1.3 mm yr⁻²) and air temperature (1.7 mm yr⁻²). Looking at all data on a month by month basis, we found that T_a had a positive effect on dET₀/dt (the derivative of reference evapotranspiration to time) and R_n and u₂ had negative effects on dET₀/dt. While changes in air temperature were found to produce a large increase in dET₀/dt, changes in other key variables each reduced rates, resulting in an overall negative trend in dET₀/dt.     

基于分形系统的烟草花序可视化仿真研究

为实现聚散或团状植物花序三维建模和可视化仿真,以烟草为例,提出了一种基于分形系统的植物花序可视化仿真方法。通过分析烟草花序的形态结构特征,构建初始分形单元,以仿射变换为基本框架,按照一定的迭代生成算法,分别建立了烟草花序结构与几何模型,并对烟草花序生长进行了模拟。建模过程中,烟草单花的器官几何模型分别用球B样条曲线和参数曲面表示,通过调节对应控制点与参数,重构了不同开花状态下的三维几何模型。实验结果表明,该方法得到的烟草花序模型能充分地表现烟草花序的形态特征,单花器官有较高的真实感,为其他聚散或团状花序的三维可视化提供了技术手段。